Strategies in Naturalistic Decision-Making: A cognitive Task Analysis of Naval Weather Forecasting

The work reported here was undertaken to gain an understanding of the weather forecasting process in a naturalistic setting that involves task switching and moderate time pressure. In the first study, Navy weather forecasters verbalized their thoughts while they completed a standard forecasting task. In the second study, Navy weather forecasters completed a questionnaire after finishing each of 22 forecasts. The studies showed that military forecasting is streamlined; forecasters relied largely on numerical weather prediction models, and problem solving was predominantly rule-based rather than based upon a four-dimensional mental representation of the atmosphere. Strategies suggested an effort to minimize workload in order to adapt to task demands. Despite the need for efficiency, military forecasters appeared to maintain system awareness. All forecasters expressed some understanding of numerical model uncertainty.